Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs NCAAB Betting Prediction

Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Prediction 1/21/2025

The Louisville Cardinals (14-5) travel to face off against the SMU Mustangs (14-4) on Tuesday, January 21st. This game will be played at Moody Coliseum in Dallas and televised on ACCN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs

The Cardinals Are Coming Off A Win

Louisville improved to 14-5 on the season with an 81-67 win over Virginia on Saturday. The Cardinals were -15 favorites going into the game, but they didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 148, surpassing the over/under line of 129.5.

Louisville took a 39-28 lead into halftime and scored 42 points in the second half while allowing 39 points to Virginia.

The Mustangs Are Coming Off A Win

SMU Mustangs Recent Game/Games

SMU improved to 14-4 on the season with a dominant 117-74 win over Miami on Saturday. The Mustangs, who were -5.5 favorites, not only covered the spread but also helped push the total points well over the 156.5 O/U line, with a combined 191 points.

SMU took control early, leading 60-26 at halftime. They continued their strong play in the 2nd half, scoring 57 points while allowing 48.

Cardinals Offense Breakdown

Louisville put up 81 points in their last game, shooting 43.3% from the field and 26.1% from beyond the arc, hitting 6 of 23 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 48.3%, with a strong 54.1% shooting inside the arc, connecting on 20 of 37 two-point attempts.

At the free-throw line, the Cardinals were efficient, hitting 23 of 27 for 85.2%. They grabbed 10 offensive rebounds and dished out 11 assists. Elijah Saunders and Reyne Smith each scored 19 points, with Saunders adding 10 rebounds. James Scott also contributed 10 boards, shooting 71.4% from the field.

Mustangs Offense Breakdown

SMU’s offense was on fire in their last game, putting up 117 points with a 69.2% shooting percentage from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 80%, thanks to hitting 77.5% of their two-point attempts and 56% from beyond the arc, connecting on 14 of 25 threes.

Matthew Cleveland led the way with 31 points, while Boopie Miller added 18 points and 10 assists. The Mustangs dished out 28 assists as a team, with Matt Cross contributing 17 points and 6 rebounds, shooting 75% from the field and 60% from three-point range.

Cardinals Team Defense

Louisville’s defense gave up 67 points, with their opponents shooting 43% from the field, hitting 26 of 60 shots. Inside the arc, they allowed 54% shooting, as the other team went 20/37 on two-point attempts.

From three-point range, Louisville held their opponents to 26% shooting, with just 6 made threes on 23 attempts. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 27 times, where they converted 23 for 85%. Louisville allowed 10 offensive rebounds.

Mustangs Team Defense

Louisville’s defense gave up 67 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 43% from the field. They allowed 20 two-point baskets on 37 attempts, a 54% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, the Cardinals held their opponents to 26% shooting, with just 6 made threes on 23 attempts. Louisville also sent the other team to the line 27 times, where they converted 23 free throws, an 85% success rate.

Cardinals vs Mustangs Trends

  • Across their last five road contests, Louisville has been good against the spread posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 82 points per game.
  • In their last ten games at home, the Mustangs have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 3-7 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 78 points per game in these contests.
  • Through their last three games as the underdog, the Cardinals have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mustangs have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 10-0.

Cardinals vs Mustangs Prediction

The Mustangs is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 77-69. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Mustangs at -1.5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 156.5 and our model has the Cardinals and Mustangs finishing with a combined 146 points. Our pick is to take the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.