The Milwaukee Brewers (44-31) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (39-40) on Friday, June 21st. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on BSWI. The Padres are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Brewers are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Padres. First pitch is set for 8:40 CT.
Brewers vs Padres
San Diego picked up a 7-6 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Brewers, they scored two of their six runs in the 5th and added three more in the 9th.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was the difference for the Padres, as he went 4/5 with a home run and two RBIs. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth each drove in two for San Diego’s offense.
Adam Mazur only went 4 2/3 innings for the Padres but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. Jeremiah Estrada got the win out of the bullpen, and Mark Melancon got the save. Joel Payamps took the loss for Milwaukee out of the bullpen.
Milwaukee is 44-31 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. Currently, they lead the Cardinals by 6.5 games. The Brewers are looking to bounce back today, as they dropped the first game of the series vs. the Padres. So far, they have gone 18-9 in divisional games.
At home, the Brewers have gone 22-12 this season. On the road, they are 22-19 this year. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 25-14, and they are 19-17 as the underdog. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 15-7-2 this year and have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road.
The Brewers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 39-36. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 24-17 on the run line. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and have a run line record of 24-12 as an underdog.
When the Brewers are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for the Brewers is 39-33, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have a 10-4 record. In total, 56 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 74.7% of their games.
Colin Rea Gets The Start For The Brewers
Milwaukee is sending Colin Rea to the mound today, and he has made 12 starts this season. Rea’s record is 6-2, and he has an ERA of 3.29. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 6.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Rea’s most recent outing came on June 16th, where he picked up the win after going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came out of the bullpen. Rea has been especially tough at home, coming in with a 4-1 record and 2.78 ERA compared to 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA on the road.
Brewers Offense Breakdown
For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 6th best hitting team, with a team batting average of .252. Milwaukee does a good job of avoiding strikeouts and are 3rd in the league in walks.
Willy Adames has been the Brewers’ top power threat this season, as his 13 homers are 1st on the team and 11th in the league. He is also 7th in the league with 54 RBIs. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .300 and is 2nd on the team with 48 RBIs. Over his last five games, Rhys Hoskins has gone 6/21 with three runs scored and one homer.
San Diego is currently 3rd in the NL West, and they are nine games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres are 39-40 overall and have gone 14-15 in divisional matchups this year. They have won two straight games and are 5-5 over their last 10.
At home, the Padres are 19-21 this year and 20-19 on the road. As the favorite, San Diego has gone 25-23 and 14-17 as the underdog. The Padres have won four straight games at home, and their overall series record is 13-10-3. They have lost two straight series.
San Diego has been a strong run line team overall this season, going 40-39. However, they have been much better on the road, where they are 27-12 against the run line compared to just 13-27 at home. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 21-10 compared to 19-29 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7, while it’s -3.3 in losses.
The San Diego Padres are at home today against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Padres’ games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-39. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 10-13. Overall, 62.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line.
Dylan Cease Gets The Start For The Padres
Right-hander Dylan Cease gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Brewers at home. Cease has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.95 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has a WHIP of 1.07 and has issued just 2.7 walks per nine innings compared to 11.01 strikeouts. Cease has turned in eight quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing vs. the Mets, where he gave up seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Padres Offense Breakdown
San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best so far this season, as they are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. The Padres are also near the top of the league in terms of slugging percentage and on-base percentage.
Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been a nice 1-2 punch in the Padres lineup, as Profar is batting .321 with 10 homers, and Cronenworth is hitting .254 with 11 homers. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also a big power threat, as his 14 homers are the best on the team and 10th best in the MLB. Over his last six games, Jackson Merrill is hitting .263 with three homers.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
There are a few ways you could look to play this game, but we are recommending that you stick with the money line and take the Padres to pick up the win at home. At -154, there is a good amount of value in this pick, as our projections have the Padres winning this one 6-5.
If you are looking to play the over/under, our pick would be to take the over at 7.5 runs. However, our preference would be to stick with the money line and take the Padres to win.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:June 24, 2024 Brewers, Padres