The Miami Marlins (28-52) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-27) on Thursday, June 27th. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on NSPPH. The Phillies are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Marlins are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Royals. First pitch is set for 5:20 CT.
Marlins vs Phillies
Miami closed out their series vs. the Royals with a 5-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the +176 underdog on the money line. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Royals scored one run in the bottom of the 2nd.
Valente Bellozo got the start for the Marlins and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up two runs on just two hits. The Marlins offense scored their only run in thejson 2nd but didn’t have another hit until the 5th.
Miami is 28-52 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 25.0 games behind the Phillies. So far, they have gone just 5-17 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins kick off their series in Philadelphia today, and they are 12-25 on the road compared to 16-27 at home.
As the underdog, the Marlins have gone 25-40 this year, compared to 3-12 as the favorite. Miami’s overall series record is 7-18-1, and they lost their previous series, dropping two games to the Royals.
When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.8 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.9 runs per game. As a result, their run line record is 34-46, including a 18-19 mark on the road. They are 33-32 against the run line as an underdog, but just 1-14 as a favorite.
Despite the Miami Marlins having a combined run average of 8.5 runs per game, the over/under line for their game against the Philadelphia Phillies today is set at just 7.5 runs. The Marlins have played 55 games this season with higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 41-38. However, their current under streak is at three games.
Trevor Rogers Gets The Start For The Marlins
Miami is sending left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 1-8 with an ERA of 4.90. Rogers’ WHIP for the season is 1.55, and opponents are batting .279 off him this year. In his 15 appearances, Rogers has turned in two quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Rogers finished with a no-decision vs. the Mariners, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. The Marlins starter has allowed at least one homer in four straight outings.
Marlins Offense Breakdown
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also one of the worst home run hitting teams in the league and have the worst isolated power figure in the league. Miami’s team batting average is just .230, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and slugging.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 37 RBIs and is batting .264. He is also 2nd on the team with 10 homers. Bryan De La Cruz has 14 homers this season, which is 11th in the league, but is hitting just .242 for the season. De La Cruz has three homers in his last nine games, but is batting just .237 over that stretch.
Heading into their last game vs. the Tigers, the Phillies closed out the series with a 6-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -167. Offensively, the Phillies scored their six runs on jsonly 12 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Spencer Turnbull got the start for the Phillies, going three innings and giving up just one run on one hit. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. Brandon Marsh was hot at the plate, going 4/4 with a run scored and four RBIs. The Phillies also had a big 4th inning, scoring two runs to take the lead. José Ruiz got the win out of the bullpen.
With an overall record of 53-27, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Braves. Philadelphia will host the Marlins today, and they are 12-6 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies have been tough to beat at home, going 31-12 this season.
So far, the Phillies have been good on the road, putting together a record of 22-15. They have really shined in night games, going 35-14 this season. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 47-21 and 6-6 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 17-7-4 and have won three straight series.
Philadelphia has been a solid run line bet this season, going 43-37 overall. They have been especially good at home, where they are 23-20 against the run line. The Phillies have a run differential of +1.5 runs per game this season, and they have been outscoring opponents by an average of 2.0 runs per game at home. As the favorite, they are 37-31 against the run line, but as the underdog, they are 6-6.
The Philadelphia Phillies are at home today against the Miami Marlins with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 8.6, and their over/under record is 34-41. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 5-10. Overall, 67.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins at home. Wheeler has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Wheeler has been pitching well at home, coming in with a 1.81 ERA compared to 5.29 on the road. Overall, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings. Wheeler’s ERA for the season ranks 10th in the majors.
Phillies Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Phillies offense is 2nd in the league in runs scored at 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .259, which is the 3rd best mark in the league, and are also among the league leaders in home runs. Philadelphia’s team on-base percentage of .333 is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Harper has been on fire, going 20/43 with 5 homers and 11 RBIs. Harper’s 20 homers is the best mark on the team and 5th best in the league. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also among the league leaders in home runs, with 9 and 17, respectively.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
With the Marlins being +251 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick. Our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, and with the payout being over +250, this is a great way to maximize your payout.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Trevor Rogers finishing with six strikeouts compared to Zack Wheeler with seven. Offensively, we have the Marlins finishing with 11 strikeouts compared to the Phillies with eight.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:June 27, 2024 Marlins, Phillies