The Miami Marlins (29-53) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (54-28) on Saturday, June 29th. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on NSPPH. The Phillies are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Marlins are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Phillies. First pitch is set for 3:05 CT.
Marlins vs Phillies
Philadelphia cruised to a 2-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had just two more hits than the Marlins and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -225 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Kyle Tyler for the Marlins and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. Tyler went just 4 2/3 innings and gave up one run and four hits. Sanchez was excellent for the Phillies, going nine innings and striking out nine without giving up a run.
Miami had a chance to get on the board in the 8th inning, as they scored one run off Sanchez and had the bases loaded with two outs. However, Hector Neris came in and got the final out to preserve the win for the Phillies.
Miami is 29-53 overall and 25.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they are just 6-18 in divisional games. The Marlins are on the road today, and they are 13-26 as the road team this year.
So far, the Marlins are 3-12 when favored and 26-41 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 7-18-1. Miami’s series with the Phillies is currently tied 1-1, and they are 6-4 across their last ten games.
When the Marlins win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.9 runs per game. This has led to a run line record of 35-47, with a -1.5 run differential per game. As the underdog, they have been a solid bet at 34-33, but as the favorite, they are just 1-14.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is the exact combined run average for the Marlins this season. Miami has a 42-39 over/under record on the year, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Marlins are 15-14 on the over/under, and 14.6% of their games have had higher lines than 8.5 runs.
Roddery Muñoz Gets The Start For The Marlins
Roddery Muñoz gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Phillies on the road. So far this season, he has made seven starts and has a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 5.80. Looking at his overall numbers, Muñoz has a WHIP of 1.40 and has issued 4.54 walks per nine innings compared to 8.58 strikeouts. In his last outing, Muñoz took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. He has allowed a total of 14 home runs this season.
Marlins Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 2.9 runs per contest. As a team, Miami is batting just .230, and they are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage. Miami’s team OPS of .628 is also 27th in the MLB.
Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 14 home runs is the best mark on the team and 12th best in the league. De La Cruz is also leading the Marlins with 39 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is batting .260 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 10 homers. Over his last six games, Jake Burger has gone 6/23 with a home run and three RBIs.
With an overall record of 54-28, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Braves. The Phillies are 13-7 against other teams in the NL East. At home, the Phillies are 32-13 this season, and they have gone 22-15 on the road. So far, they have been really good in night games, going 35-14.
Philadelphia has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 17-7-4 this year. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 48-22 and 31-11 as the favorite at home. They are also 6-6 when listed as the underdog this year.
When betting the run line on the Phillies this season, it’s been a profitable venture as they are 44-38 overall. They are 24-21 against the run line at home this season, where they have an average run margin of 1.8 runs per game. As the favorite, they are 38-32 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 6-6.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing the Miami Marlins at home today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is also 8.5 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 35-42. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Phillies have gone 6-10 in those games. So far this season, 20.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Aaron Nola Gets The Start For The Phillies
Through 16 starts, Aaron Nola has a record of 9-3 and an ERA of 3.39. He has one complete game shutout this year and 11 quality starts. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.05. In his last outing, he went seven innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four starts, Nola has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of them. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.08 compared to 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA on the road.
Phillies Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Phillies have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, as they are 3rd in runs per game (5) and have the 3rd best team batting average in the league at .259. They have also been one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, as their 97 homers is 5th in the league. The Phillies have been especially good at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game.
Bryce Harper has been red hot of late, going 7/18 in his last four games with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, Harper is batting .303 with 20 homers and 58 RBIs. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber have also been key power sources for the Phillies, with Bohm having gone deep nine times and Schwarber 17. Bohm is batting .300 for the season, and Schwarber is at .250.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
Our prediction for today’s Marlins vs. Phillies game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We do have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 5-4, but with the payout for a Phillies win being -256, we like the over as our top pick.
If you’re looking for a payout for a Phillies win, we would recommend paring it with another bet, as the payout is not great for a money line pick. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Nola finishing with six strikeouts, and for the Marlins, Roddery Muñoz is projected to finish with six as well.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:June 29, 2024 Marlins, Phillies