The New York Mets (36-39) travel to face off against the Chicago Cubs (37-40) on Sunday, June 23rd. This game will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and televised on ESPN. The Cubs are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Cubs. First pitch is set for 6:10 CT.
Mets vs Cubs
Chicago cruised to an easy 8-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 1st inning, scoring five of their eight runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were the slight underdogs at +105.
Jameson Taillon pitched well for the Cubs in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts and picked up a win. Tylor Megill had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.
At the plate, the Cubs were led by Francisco Alvarez and J.D. Martinez, who each had two hits and an RBI. Christopher Morel also had a good game at the plate, going 2/4 with a home run.
With an overall record of 36-39, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York will be on the road today, taking on the Cubs and are 1-1 in their series vs. the Cubs. The Mets are 8-2 across their last ten games and have gone 11-10 in divisional matchups this year.
At home, the Mets are 18-23 this year, and they have gone 18-16 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 20-19 this year and 16-20 as the underdog. New York has won four straight series and three straight series on the road. Their overall series record is 11-12-3 this year.
When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.3 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.2 runs per game. New York is 34-41 against the run line this season, with a -0.1 run margin per game. The Mets have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 20-14, compared to 14-27 at home. They have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games as the favorite, going 13-26 overall in that scenario. As the underdog, they are 21-15 against the run line.
When the Mets play on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs, which is slightly below their season average of 9.4 runs per game. The Mets’ over/under record is 38-35, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, the over is 8-4 in their games. This season, 42.7% of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, while 41.3% have had lines set below 8 runs.
Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 4-2 with a 3.52 ERA. Opponents have a batting average of .217 this season off Severino, and he has a WHIP of 1.20. Out of his 14 appearances, Severino has turned in six quality starts. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Severino has been much better at home, coming in with a 2.68 ERA compared to 4.98 on the road.
Mets Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .247, which is 9th in the league, and they are also 9th in home runs. New York’s team on-base percentage is 7th in the league at .318.
Brandon Nimmo has been on a tear of late, going 13/30 in his last seven games with three homers and 10 RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .244. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 42 apiece. Alonso also leads the team with 16 homers.
With a record of 37-40, the Cubs are 4th in the NL Central, seven games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 9-17 in divisional games. The Cubs will be at home today, where they are 22-17 compared to 15-23 on the road.
Chicago has been able to win two straight games as the underdog, and they are 18-22 as the underdog overall. The Cubs have been about an even split when favored, coming in with a mark of 19-18 this year. So far, their overall series record is 9-13-2. Heading into game three vs. the Mets, the Cubs and Mets are tied in the series at 1-1. Chicago’s last 10 games have been split right down the middle, going 5-5.
Chicago is 37-40 against the run line this season, including a 15-24 mark at home. The Cubs have been a better bet on the road, where they are 22-16 against the run line. They have been a profitable run line bet as the underdog, going 27-13. Chicago has an average run differential of -0.2 runs per game this season.
The Chicago Cubs will be playing at home against the New York Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Cubs games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 33-41. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 3-9. So far this season, 49.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Javier Assad Gets The Start For The Cubs
Through 15 starts, Javier Assad has a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 2.75. He has made three quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work. In that start vs. the Giants, he gave up two homers. Assad has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. The right-hander has a record of 2-0 at home with a 1.79 ERA compared to 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA on the road. So far, he has a walk rate of 3.66 per nine innings compared to 9.04 strikeouts.
Cubs Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Cubs offense has been pretty average, as they are 18th in runs per game at 4.2. Overall, they are batting just .230, which is 17th in the league. The Cubs have been good at working the count, as they are 5th in the league in walks. One thing to keep an eye on is that they are just 19th in the league in slugging percentage and have a collective OPS of .682.
Christopher Morel has been a bright spot for the Cubs this season in terms of power, as he has 14 homers, which is 11th in the league. However, he is batting just .202. Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch are all tied for 2nd on the team with 9 homers. Over his last six games, Happ has gone 8/21 with two homers, just like Morel. Bellinger comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.
Mets vs Cubs Prediction
Our predicted score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. Given that they are also the underdogs, we really like the value of taking the Mets on the money line, with a payout of -105.
If you’re looking for a potential home run bet, the Mets are projected to have a better chance of hitting a home run than the Cubs. However, we have the Cubs finishing with fewer runs and hits than the Mets.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:June 24, 2024 Cubs, Mets