The New England Patriots will face off against the Cincinnati Bengals at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th. This matchup is being played at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

The Patriots are +8.5 point underdogs on the road at Cincinnati in a week one matchup. The Bengals are the heavy favorite with a money line of -431, while New England’s money line odds are +332. Kickoff is set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, and the over/under line is at 40.5 points. This one is being televised on CBS.

• Date: Sunday, September 8th
• Time: 1:00 ET
• Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
• TV: CBS

Patriots vs Bengals

The Patriots’ ATS record of 5-11-1 included a 4-7-1 mark as the underdog and a 1-4 showing as the favorite. New England’s overall record was 4-13, with all four of their wins coming against AFC opponents. They were winless in non-conference games (0-5) and went 2-8 against teams with above .500 records. Against below .500 teams, they went 2-5.

At home, the Patriots struggled to a 1-8 record, while they were 3-5 on the road. Their over/under record was 7-10, and the average over/under line in their games was 39.3. Their games averaged 35.4 combined points. New England’s ATS record at home was 1-7-1, and on the road, it was 4-4.

The Patriots’ ATS record of 5-11-1 included a 1-4 mark as the favorite and a 4-7-1 mark as the underdog. They didn’t perform well at home, going 1-7-1 ATS, but they were 4-4 ATS on the road. New England’s season ended with a 35-32 average over/under, ranking 32nd in the league, and their over/under record was 7-10.

New England’s on-field struggles led to a 4-13 season, with all four wins coming against AFC opponents. They were winless in non-conference games (0-5) and really struggled at home, going 1-8. Against teams with winning records, the Patriots went 2-8, and they were 2-5 against teams with losing records. Their ATS record included a 3-9 mark as the underdog and a 1-4 record as the favorite.

Patriots Injury Report

• Christian Elliss – Head (Questionable)
• Hunter Henry – Undisclosed (Questionable)
• Jacoby Brissett – Shoulder (Probable)
• Sidy Sow – Ankle (Questionable)
• Vederian Lowe – Oblique (Questionable)
• Marte Mapu – Undisclosed (Out)
• Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Undisclosed (Out)
• JaQuae Jackson – Undisclosed (Out)
• Christian Barmore – Blood Clot (Out)
• Kendrick Bourne – Undisclosed (Out)
• Sione Takitaki – Undisclosed (Out)
• Jake Andrews – Undisclosed (Out)
• Cole Strange – Undisclosed (Out)

Bengals Injury Report

• Chris Evans – Knee (Out)
• D’Ante Smith – Knee (Out)
• DJ Ivey – Undisclosed (Out)
• Cam Sample – Achilles (Out)
• Jake Browning – Ribs (Questionable)
• Sam Hubbard – Knee (Questionable)
• Amarius Mims – Pectoral (Questionable)
• McKinnley Jackson – Knee (Out)
• Myles Murphy – Knee (Out)
• Brad Robbins – Quadriceps (Out)
• Lance Robinson – Undisclosed (Out)
• Ja’Marr Chase – Not Injury Related (Questionable)

Patriots Offense Breakdown

New England’s offense struggled mightily last season, finishing 31st in the league with just 13.9 points per game. They were also 32nd in the league at home, scoring only 12.1 points per game. The Patriots were near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories, ranking 30th in yards per game (276.2) and 29th in yards per play (4.6).

The Patriots couldn’t get much going in the passing game, ranking 28th in yards per game and 22nd in attempts. Their 3rd ranked red zone conversion percentage didn’t matter much, as they were 27th in third down conversion percentage.

Jacoby Brissett played in just two games last season, throwing for 224 yards on 18-of-23 passing (78.3%). He is now in his 9th season in the league and is currently with the Patriots after playing for the Commanders last year. Brissett also threw three touchdowns without any interceptions last year.

Bengals Offense Breakdown

New England’s offense struggled mightily last season, finishing 31st in the league with just 13.9 points per game. They were also 32nd in the league in scoring at home, managing only 12.1 points per game. The Patriots were one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in yards per game and 180.5 yards per game. Their inability to sustain drives was evident in their 27th ranked 3rd down conversion percentage.

Overall, the Patriots were 30th in yards per game, averaging only 276.2 yards per contest. They couldn’t get much going on the ground either, finishing 25th in rushing yards and 26th in attempts. Despite their struggles, they were 3rd in red zone conversion percentage, converting on 52.8% of their red zone opportunities.

Joe Burrow played in 10 games last season, throwing for 2,309 yards. He completed 66.8% of his passes on 365 attempts and finished with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. Burrow is heading into his 5th season in the league and will look to stay healthy and put together a full season for the Bengals.

This week, Burrow and the Bengals will face the Patriots. Last season, he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt and 9.5 yards per completion.

Patriots Team Defense

New England’s defense was tough against the run last season, allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league. Overall, they were the 4th best unit in the NFL, giving up 21.5 points per game, although this figure ranked 14th in the league. The Patriots also excelled in limiting passing touchdowns, ranking 3rd in the league.

The Patriots were also 6th in the league in yards allowed, giving up just 301.6 yards per game. However, they struggled to pressure the quarterback, finishing near the bottom of the league in sacks, quarterback hits, and tackles for loss.

Bengals Team Defense

The Patriots’ defense was 4th in the NFL last season, despite finishing 14th in points allowed at 21.5 per game. They were tough against the pass, allowing the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns and the 10th fewest passing yards. New England’s run defense was also strong, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league.

In terms of yards allowed, the Patriots were 6th in the NFL, giving up only 301.6 yards per game. They also excelled on third downs, holding opponents to a 36.3% conversion rate, and were tough in the red zone, allowing a 46.2% scoring percentage.

Patriots vs Bengals Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Patriots have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 17 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Cincinnati has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 22 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight up record of 3-7. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-5-1.
• Against the spread, the Bengals have put together of 2-2-1 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Patriots vs Bengals Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread for this week one matchup between the Patriots and Bengals is to take the Patriots to cover as road underdogs. Even though the Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs, we have the Bengals narrowly winning by a score of 23-22.

As for our over/under pick, with the line sitting at 40.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 45 points. This could be a good opportunity to take the over before the line moves closer to kickoff.

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All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.